In light of another batch of newbies arriving on Friday night,
we've been wondering who stands a chance of winning the series
with just four weeks to go. First let's consider all the latecomers.
When the first round of newbies arrived in Week 4 (Andrew,
Keeley and Rachel), we published an article suggesting that
Andrew was likely to go furthest in the game.
The geeky maths expert was the 6th-Favourite to win at the
time, and now he's the 5th-Favourite according to online bookmaker
Paddy Power, who are currently offering odds of 8/1 on him.
So, the 19-year-old student is doing rather well for a latecomer,
especially seeing as original housemates Steve, Mario and
David are behind him in the betting, and therefore less likely
to win as far as Paddy is concerned.
Fellow latecomer Keeley has now left the game due to injury,
but poor old Rachel is bringing up the rear and is currently
being offered at odds of 80/1 to win Big Brother 11. Basically,
it's an impossibility!
Of the latest trio of newbies – Jo, Joe John and Laura
– Joe John is favoured most by the bookies. The 8th-Favourite
to win is currently being offered at 16/1 after a few days
in the game. However, his odds were initially shorter, so
it looks like the bookies don't think he's a strong enough
character to win the show in the time remaining.
Fellow second-round latecomer Laura is currently at 50/1
and Jo is at 66/1, which is to say that, like Rachel, they
stand very little chance of winning. Keep an eye on hunky
boxer Joe John though, because a latecomer has won
the show before.
Indeed, Brian Belo won Big Brother 8 in 2007, but things
were different that year because it was just female housemates
to start with, then sole male contestant Ziggy Lichman arrived,
and then another couple of housemates, before Brian arrived
in the next batch of latecomers on Day 17.
Therefore, the dopey data clerk entered the House earlier
than BB11's Andrew et al (Day 31), and much earlier than Joe
John et al (Day 45), so fans had a lot longer period in-which
to warm to him.
Looking at the original housemates, of-which seven remain,
you can discount 9th-Favourite Dave – at 40/1 –
straight away. He's an okay bloke, but he's just not a winner
in this company.
About 8th-Favourite Steve, who's currently being offered
by Paddy Power at odds of 10/1, we've never felt he could
win to be frank, despite the fact that he was the bookies'
favourite for a while at the beginning of the series.
The bomb blast victim just doesn't have the requisite support
from the public, and although an eventual winner can creep-up
and gain popularity over the weeks, Steve has very few fans
according to opinion Polls. Therefore, it would take some
doing for him to suddenly win. Indeed, we can even see him
being beaten by Mario, who's also being offered at 10/1 and
is joint 8th-Favourite.
No, the £100,000 prize money is much more likely to
go to either Ben, Corin, Josie or John James. However, those
four seem to be going up-and-down like yo-yos in terms of
popularity, so, just like the last time we wrote such an article,
we're reluctant to nail our colours to the mast and declare
one of them the likely winner.
If you have more of an idea which one will likely go all
the way, why not have a little flutter to make things more
interesting as the series builds to its climax?
You can currently get odds of 5/2 on John James winning BB11,
10/3 on Josie, 7/2 on Corin and 7/1 on Ben. So, a £10
bet on John would make you £25 profit if successful,
£33 on Josie, £35 on Corin, or £70 on Ben.
If you were to stake £40 instead, you'd make £100
from John winning (plus your stake back), £133 Josie,
£140 Corin or £280 Ben (we're still not discounting
Benny boy as a possible winner).
Plus, you'll get a Free £20 Bet as
soon as you've placed your first Bet with Paddy Power, so
you can effectively back two housemates for the price of one.
To make it clear, if your paid-for bet loses, but your Free
bet wins, you'll still get the winnings from the Free Bet
as if you'd paid for it.
here for more details. It's quick and easy to bet online,
so don't be put off if you've never placed a bet before.